Zusk: the battle
Dr Kush Joshi
Co-founder and Sports and Exercise Medicine Consultant
We’re about to dive deep into a showdown that's currently making rounds in the tech world – an MMA match between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. We'll break down the fight, delve into what the training phases could look like, and make a somewhat educated prediction on who would emerge victorious.
Before you question our qualifications for this analysis, let's clarify some things. One of us trained in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) for three years and once won a submission over one of Sweden's leading black belts. Granted, the odds were stacked in my favour: it was his bachelor party and his legs and one arm were duck-taped together, not to mention his skinny, low-energy state due to undiagnosed Type 1 diabetes. But hey, a win is a win.
As for my co-writer, he holds real credentials: he's a medical doctor and one of the UK’s leading Consultants in Sports and Exercise Medicine.
While neither of us is about to step into an octagon anytime soon, we both boast some expertise in exercise physiology, which is vital to understanding the upcoming analysis.
The Contenders
Elon Musk
Age: 51
Weight: 85+ Kg
Estimated V02 Max: 29-35 ml/kg/min
Est AeT % V02 max: 50% of VO2 max
Est AnT % VO2 max: 80% of VO2 max
Mark Zuckerberg
Age: 39
Weight: 70+ Kg
Estimated V02 Max: 52-54 ml/kg/min
Est AeT % V02 max: 65% of VO2 max
Est AnT % VO2 max: 85% of VO2 max
To put these numbers in context. Mark can already comfortably train in combat sports and likely recover faster from the higher-intensity sessions. Elon is at a level of fitness where gardening would be comfortable. That’s a big difference from the get-go.
If the brawl were to happen today, our money would be on Zuckerberg. With a 12-year age advantage, superior cardio, and consistent training in MMA and BJJ, Mark seems like the clear favourite unless Musk lands a miracle punch.
Musk could employ his much-touted 'Walrus attack,' aiming to use his bulk to his advantage. But in the world of MMA, Walrus often get beached and perish. Here is a life lesson: ignore the size queens; size only matters when you both are equally skilled. Get the skillz….
So, here's our prediction if they fought today: Musk goes all out for 10-15 seconds, quickly exhausts his energy reserves, and then it's game over. Zuckerberg capitalises on Musk's fatigue and scores a first-round submission via rear naked choke, his preferred submission method.
Pre-fight build-up and conditioning
First things first, let’s set a date. Both guys need to build anticipation so they can clearly hit their objectives.
Objectives
Win the fight - be physically fit to make it a competitive event.
Deflect attention away from current issues:
Elon - increase Twitter’s revenue by staying top of media attention for a prolonged period = reduced CAC for Twitter advertisers, growth in Twitter users and more ad revenue.
Mark - deflect attention and his name away from the Metaverse, whatever that is.
Make it the biggest fight in history.
We think they’ll need at least 12 months of preparation with these three objectives.
We’ll dive deeper into objective 1, winning the fight and specifically physical preparedness.
For both fighters, the 12-month preparation will occur in the following phases: Off camp (general and specific prep) and Fight Camp (periodization and fight strategy).
From podcasts, it seems Elon Musk does little structured exercise whilst Mark trains a lot focusing on Crossfit type workouts and BJJ/MMA sessions.
We predict that Elon Musk has a small engine (low aerobic capacity) and poor ability to utilise lactate that accumulates at higher intensities. He also has a lower skill level.
Mark likely has a much bigger engine, but because of his focus on Crossfit style workouts and MMA training, he also has a poor ability/sub-optimal ability to utilise lactate that accumulates at higher intensities. His skill level is likely higher than Elon’s.
General and specific preparation
Elon has a mountain to climb. He needs to do three things simultaneously: improve aerobic capacity, improve lactate utilisation, and get some fighting skills. We recommend Elon starts by increasing the volume of lower-intensity training, mostly through cycling and losing some weight. The lower-volume training will help increase his aerobic threshold and build the structure (mitochondria, capillaries, heart stroke volume etc) to handle the higher-intensity training later. Weight loss will help increase his VO2 max. By cycling, we reduce the impact on his muscles and joints whilst he’s still overweight.
Elon must also incorporate some strength and power training into his routine. Again, volume may be more important than exhausting high-intensity training.
Given the amount of work Elon needs to do for fight-specific skills, focusing on key defence: stand-up blocks/fighters stance, takedown defence and a few submissions would be his best bet. Mark apparently likes to be on top, so Elon needs his defence and attack from the bottom to be instinctive.
Mark can improve lactate utilisation through lower intensity volume as well. His metabolic efficiency can be improved, meaning he can take on higher-intensity work as the fight approaches. This means slower jogging and low-intensity cycling post-specific training.
Both fighters should be initially assessed in an exercise physiology lab, and their training tailored to their individual parameters. They should also get a sports dietician to guide their nutrition: there’s no power without calories….
The teams should comprise: an endurance coach, strength and conditioning coach, stand-up (boxing, Muay Thai) coach, ground coach (BJJ, wrestling, Sambo) and strategy (corner man) and sports dietician. They may also need a doctor to sort out injuries and help them with doping sorry, asthma medication.
Fight camp
10 weeks out from the fight. Here’s where everything needs to come together. This will be hard and stressful, so sleep, diet and stress must be well-managed. Best not to road range, so let’s leave the Tesla on autopilot.
The training will be undulating, with multiple training stimuli rotated between workouts: strength, power, speed, and anaerobic/glycolytic capacity. The skills should be there from the general and specific preparation phases, so it’s about training them in a similar fight environment.
Given the age difference, the stress of managing multiple companies and the starting point, we don’t think Elon can build a big enough engine to compete with Mark over multiple rounds. Elon needs striking power and a great ground submission that can be utilised within the first two rounds. Fight camp will focus on honing these skills and building Elon’s anaerobic capacity. More than 70% of UFC fights end during an 8-14 second phase of high-intensity activity. This is where Elon can shine.
Mark will be more methodical. He’ll focus on tiring Elon out, which means he needs to defend against the more aggressive fighter for the first two rounds. He can then systematically pick him off with annoying leg kicks, jabs etc, before going to the ground and eeking out a rear-naked choke. Training camp will be about defence to minimise damage and avoid a fight-ending strike. Mark’s fitness and weight are already good, and his basic skills are in place. Fight camp is about honing his already advantageous position.
Fight prediction
Mark will ignore the advice to tire out Elon and go for an aggressive approach trying to end the fight in the first or second round.
Either Elon will end up on his back with Mark comfortably taking the top position and then working his way to submission, or Mark will succumb to Elon’s killer blow as Mark advances too quickly. Elon will literally move fast and break things.
My money is on Mark.
It’s not the right approach, but doing their own thing has worked out pretty well for both so far!